Time to get back at this for Week 3 of the NFL with some thoughts about a few of the upcoming games and some spots I may look to bet. I had to take some time off last week to recover from the devastating and embarrassing performance by my Colts but I’m restored and ready to be hurt again. Let’s get into it.
Disclaimer – I’ve been cold to start the season but I’m feeling good after getting the Browns cover to start this week off. Follow at your own risk.
The game I’ve looked at the most this week is between the Packers and Bucs. The reason I’m looking at this matchup isn’t because of who is on the field, it’s who is not on the field. The Bucs will be without Chris Godwin, Mike Evans is suspended, and Julio Jones is currently questionable and may be limited even if he does go. To me, this is a disaster in the making for the Buccaneers and let’s be honest, they haven’t looked great on offense already. We have seen Tom Brady struggle without his great weapons around him and now he faces a good Packers defense who create the most pressure in the league and they do it without blitzing. We take a look at very recent history with the Rams and Bucs in the playoffs last year and Brady struggled with the natural pressure created by the Rams and needed a lot of luck to come his way to get back in that game. The Bucs only chance in this game will be with the run game that we’ve seen Green Bay struggle with but if the Bucs don’t have any explosive weapons going the Packers can focus on this. On the other side, another matchup in Green Bay’s favor is Aaron Jones on the LB group and more specifically the awful coverage linebacker Devin White. AJ will be a major factor in how Green Bay moves this ball this week and I think it will be enough to pull out the win. I could see this being a very low scoring game but with the Pack ultimately pulling it out.
Packers ML (You can call me stupid for going against Brady after the game when this loses.)
I’ve held out on the hype so far created by Hard Knocks Lions but man this offense is looking good and moving the ball. In fact, the Lions are 7th in overall EPA per play and 3rd in EPA per rush. Now Swift is currently questionable and if he’s out I wouldn’t be as confident in the Lions here but the Vikings are 4th worst in EPA run defense. Huge mismatch. If the Lions have their ground game going this opens up the passing game for Goff who has been much better at throwing the ball further down the field this year and I expect St. Brown to break the NFL consecutive games over 8 catches record this week. No I’m not saying the Lions will win this game. There’s a reason this number is where it is. The Lions defense doesn’t seem to have improved nearly like the offense has. I’m just making the case that the Lions will have enough to stick with this team even in a bounce back game for the Vikings who will be focused and ready to go. I haven’t personally bet this game yet but I’m leaning the Lions +6.
Am I the only one who still believes Jimmy G can do a good job? I get it, being overly confident in this guy doesn’t usually work out but all I see this man do is win. Is the reason he wins because of Shanahan? Most likely, but Lance hasn’t looked nearly as good as Jimmy when he had his chances. Give me a Jimmy G boost in this game as we’ve heard rumblings from the organization that the locker room loves Jimmy and most are glad he’s back in command. Enough with the speculative. What we have seen and know is that the Broncos offense is struggling and they have faced two bottom 5 NFL defenses. The 49ers D is a big step up in class. I get the Broncos should see some positive regression with game management and red zone scoring but do we have confidence that they can quickly get that much better to do well against the 49ers defense who are 4th in defensive rush EPA? Give me the 49ers -1.5.
Some quick hitters.
I’m not sure why the line is so low in this Saints Panthers matchup but I’m heavily leaning towards the Saints. The Panthers haven’t looked great so far and now they face a great but also familiar defense. However, this line does feel like a trap to me.
I’m in full fade Seattle mode even against other bad teams such as the Falcons. The Falcons have shown a lot of grit so far in the season and they still have some playmakers on both sides of the ball.
Also not buying into the Giants quite yet. The Cowboys even without Dak are their biggest test so far. I like Cooper against the Giants Defense more than I like Daniel Jones against the Cowboys defense.
Last but not least, my Colts are currently a +6.5 point underdog against the Chiefs. Every average bettor is rushing to take the Chiefs in teasers and parlays with that line under 7 and to be honest, it does look good. This is one of those too good to be true lines and Vegas is putting this out here with confidence and if the Chiefs cover, it will cost Sin City a lot of money. I’m staying away from this game but big money has flooded to the Colts with lines going down as low as Colts +5.5. Just a warning.