TCU vs Michigan
WHAT A GAME. I think when most of us saw the playoff games we figured that the TCU-Michigan game would be a snoozer as we watched the Wolverines lay down the hammer on the Horned Frogs. And then TCU shocked the world as +7.5 underdogs and beat Michigan! This game had it all, explosive offense highlighted by a ridiculous third quarter, key momentum swings, big plays, and key mistakes. Yet, the most important aspect of the game was the defense of TCU. I know that sounds odd given that the final score was 51 to 45 in favor of the Horned Frogs, but the plays made by TCU’s defense won them the game. First, there were the two pick sixes, but there was also the exceptional red zone defense. Michigan got into the RedZone on seven occasions, but only scored a touchdown on three of the trips. And now, against all the odds the TCU Horned Frogs will be playing for a National Championship.
Ohio State vs Georgia
Ohio State came out swinging against Georgia in ways few teams really can. The Buckeyes gave it their all, completely dominating the Georgia defense for large stretches of the game and keeping the Dawg’s offense at bay. C.J. Stroud played the best game of his career going 23/34 from the field for 348 yards, 4 TD’s, and no turnovers. Add in the 34 yards he got on the ground and it’s easy to see why Stroud is projected to be a top-ten pick going into the NFL draft this year. By all accounts, the Buckeyes had this game in the bag….. until they didn’t. The turning point in the game was Marvin Harrison Jr. getting injured. No one on the Georgia defense could truly cover the wideout when he was out there, and despite not playing for much of the second half, Harrison still finished with 106 yards and 2 TD’s. Once Harrison was ruled out due to injury, the Georgia defense was able to mostly neutralize the Ohio State offense for the rest of the game. At the time of the injury, the score was 38-24. Georgia would finish on an 18-3 run to close it out. Give credit where credit is due, Stetson Bennett led the Bulldogs back with a furious fourth-quarter rally despite not playing his best game. That in and of itself is what stood out to me about this game – Ohio State played an A+ game by their standards, and lost, meanwhile Georgia played a B+ game by their lofty standards and won. Such is the dominance and strength of this Georgia team that after the game Kirby Smart and company seemed disappointed by how they played. It will be interesting to see how the Bulldogs look to fix their miscues heading into the Championship game next Monday.
After a long season with plenty of twists and turns, the College Football Playoff Semifinals are nearly upon us. There are the typical players Georgia and Ohio State, and the relative newcomers of Michigan and TCU. Perhaps the biggest story of them all is who is not in the Playoff. There is no Alabama or Clemson, and even Ohio State can count itself lucky to sneak into the Playoff following USC’s loss in the Pac-12 Championship. Regardless, there is a changing of the guard going on in College Football which will manifest itself here in the College Football Playoff.
TCU vs Michigan
The first matchup features the Big Ten winners in Michigan vs the Big 12’s most complete team in TCU. This is Michigan’s second consecutive appearance in the Playoff, and this time around they are looking to win the title. Jim Harbaugh has built his team to essentially be a version of the Georgia Bulldogs. They run the ball well and play great defense which has led Michigan to an undefeated record. Meanwhile, the Wolverines will face off against the least dominant squad in this year’s semifinals – TCU. The Horned Frogs have been playing with fire nearly every week throughout the season. It seemed like every week TCU would be down in the second half, pull off a late rally, and remain undefeated. This recipe for winning obviously leaves a lot to be desired, and it’s why almost everyone believes that TCU will be packing their bags with a loss after their battle against Michigan. The biggest X-Factor here is the Quarterback play for both teams. If Max Duggan can play lights out then I expect the Horned Frogs to have a chance to win. If J.J. Mccarthy plays really well, then I think it will be awfully hard for TCU to keep it close. Ultimately, I expect TCU to keep it closer than people think, but come up just a bit short. Give me TCU +7 to cover.
Ohio State vs Georgia
The second game features two bluebloods of college football with the Georgia Bulldogs facing off against Ohio State. Ohio State was the team that many were riding on throughout the year to win it all. That is even though the Buckeyes had a pretty light schedule which also included the now infamous failure in The Game vs Michigan. Following the loss to the Wolverines, the Buckeye’s playoff hopes looked all but over. However, with Utah defeating USC in the Pac-12 Championship game it opened the door for Ohio State to sneak in as an at-large bid. Now instead of being looked at as the team to beat, the Buckeyes are being viewed as underdogs. Typically, Ohio State performs better when they are an underdog (see their most recent championship in 2014), so it will be interesting to see if that comes to fruition. On the other side, there is the country’s most dominant team, the Georgia Bulldogs. I think it is clear that Georgia is the best team in the country when they play to their standards. This begs the question, will we see the Georgia that struggled against Missouri and Kent State or the one that manhandled Tennessee, LSU, and Oregon? My gut tells me the real Georgia will show up for this game because that’s what they have done all year when it has been asked of them. However, I still think Ohio State keeps this close enough to cover the spread. Give me Ohio State +7.
Tonight should be a good one. We got the Vegas Raiders @ LA Rams and plenty of College Basketball. I have a couple of props for NFL, a system pick for College Basketball, and a system pick for tonight’s NFL game.
Let’s get into it.
I’ll start with the NFL Props.
Dereck Carr OVER 249.5 Passing Yards
Carr has surpassed this total in four of his last five games. The game he missed was against the Colts where he threw for 248 yards.
The Rams rank in the league’s bottom half for pass rush grade, pass coverage, and overall defense. They will be without Aaron Donald tonight as well.
However, the Rams do have a great run defense. I expect a big game for Carr.
Leading to the next prop:
Dereck Carr OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
He has hit this total in his last five games and 9/12 times this season.
Our free system picks for the night:
LV Raiders -7 @ LA Rams
And a sprinkle of college basketball:
St. Thomas @ Montana State UNDER 142.5
Alright folks, I needed to take a breather over the last few days but I’m back!
I didn’t love a ton of the props on the board tonight so I only have one prop, a pick on the game, and the system triggered for the total.
Kicking it off with the prop.
Aaron Jones UNDER 57.5 rushing yards
Tennessee has a sneaky good run defense. And by sneaky, I mean that they are ranked third by PFF in run defense.
TEN only allows 3.9 ypc and give up the second fewest rushing yards per game.
Aaron Jones is banged up at the moment so tonight will likely be a committee approach.
Tennesee in their last 5 games have only given up this over once and it was to Jonathon Taylor and he finished with 58 yards.
Tennesee (+3) at Green Bay
This is an interesting one to me.
Green Bay won last week by committing to the run and using play action to get Christian Watson open.
They should attempt to do the same thing tonight.
As I mentioned though, TEN has a steller run defense.
Green Bay does not. Packers allow the 5th most rushing yards in the NFL.
Derrick Henry will be hard to take down tonight and I expect this to be a ground game.
Lastly, your system pick for the night.
Ten @ GB — OVER 41
Enjoy the game tonight!
Happy Monday folks!
Fresh week after a subpar week last week.
I went 0-4 last Thursday to ruin a great start to the week.
It’s a new week and new picks. Feel free to tail or fade…
Taylor Heinicke UNDER 210.5 Passing Yards
Taylor Heinicke has only hit this over once this year and he’s going against a prolific Eagles defense.
Philly, on average, is allowing an average of 177.6 passing yards a game.
Tonight, they have backup quarterback Heinicke.
It’s a divisional game tonight in Philly and I expect the Eagles to come out strong against the Commanders to inch closer to securing an NFC East title.
Miles Sanders OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards
Sanders has clipped this over in 75% of his games.
Philly should maintain the lead most of the game so the opportunities in theory should be there.
WAS gives up an average of 113 yards per game on the ground.
If Philly can maintain a lead, Sanders over 68.5 yards is probable.
Scottie Barnes UNDER 7.5 Assists
Barnes has hit the over only twice all season (13 total games) and he’s averaging only 4.9 assists per game.
Paul George OVER 26.5 Points
Paul George has had his way with HOU this season averaging 31.5 ppg.
Lastly, the system pick for the night:
L.A. Clippers (-5.5) at Houston Rockets
As long as LAC is the favorite by the time the line closes, this is the system pick for the night.
Have a great night!