MNF Gut Feeling Prop Bets

October 31, 2022 Uncategorized Comments Off on MNF Gut Feeling Prop Bets

What. A. Weekend.

I went 5/6 on my gut-feeling picks for yesterday’s action and 7/9 overall.

Best Sunday I’ve had this season so far.

I did sprinkle in a couple more Sunday morning before the London game since I was wanting more action and they both hit. Dulcich over 3.5 receptions and the under in London. 2/2 there and the Etienne over 69.5 rushing yards hit as well. JAX did not cover and that one hurt… I think I have grown to be somewhat of a Jags fan.

But that JAX game was my only miss this weekend from my published picks.

And before I get into tonight’s game… Etienne is HIM!

And when I say “HIM” I mean that he is really good, if you’re not fully caught up on the slang yet.

Etienne is my new favorite running back in the NFL.

Okay, now that all of yesterday’s action is out of the way.

Let’s look into tonight’s gut-feeling picks and I’ll end it with a system pick as usual.

Joe Mixon OVER 22.5 Receiving yards

Here’s the thing… Mixon gets a lot of targets out of the backfield. In fact, he’s fifth amongst running backs at 5.1 targets per game.

The next few stats will be the reason why I see Mixon getting a lot of pass work tonight.

Garrett will be active tonight and Clowney is questionable. Per PFF, CLE has the 12th best pass rush that hasn’t even been in full force yet! I expect this pass rush to tear up the Bengal’s o line which ranks at the bottom of the league in pass protection.

This should lead to dump-offs to Mixon.

Tyler Boyd OVER 62.5 receiving yards

Contrary to most, I see the Bengals struggling in this road divisional game. As good as the Brown’s pass rush is, Burrow is going to have to make plays happen and happen quickly.

Boyd should look to catch passes over the middle on crosses and slants. Boyd will be Burrow’s safety blanket tonight with Chase out.

Cleveland’s coverage has not been great this season, ranking 19th in coverage per PFF.

All eyes will be on Higgins, leaving Boyd an opportunity to catch multiple balls. We just need to hope the Bengal’s o line can hold it down for a couple of seconds at a time to get Boyd the ball.

CIN @ CLE (+3)

Cincinnati is a better team than I thought preseason.

Cleveland is also a better team than their record shows.

But a divisional game on the road is tough. And Cleveland does matchup well against the Bengals. I expect the Cleveland front 7 to give Cincinnati everything they’ve got to make tonight’s game a close one. I’m actually picking the Browns to win this one outright… I know, that’s too crazy. That’s why I will stick with the +3.

Jacoby Brisset isn’t terrible. He ranks 10th in QBR and he can somewhat take care of the football (Averaging one turnover per game).

This game is going to be won on the ground with Chubb and Hunt.

Cincinnati’s run defense is ranked 20th in rush defense per PFF, which surprised me. The Bengals have only given up 833 total rushing yards on the season.

They will have their work cut out for them against the 2nd ranked run block scheme and Nick Chubb.

This game was a tough game to pick but my bets are placed.

Your system pick of the week:

CIN @ CLE (+3)

Haha. I had no idea that was the pick until I went to our lead analyst Olin for it. For some reason, I thought it was a pick on the over-under for tonight’s game.

Oh well… Makes me feel more confident in my gut feeling bet.

I have some bad news to end today’s edition…

We are looking at Week 9 on Thursday. Marking the halfway point of the NFL season.

Very sad… The season always goes too fast.

Anyways, good luck tonight, and I’ll catch you folks on Thursday!

–Pitty

(Not an analyst)

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