Good afternoon, folks!
Decent night last night, I went 3-2 putting me at 6-3 on the week.
There is no system pick tonight so it’s only my picks today.
We’ll start with NFL first.
As I’m writing this, the weather forecast for tonight looks rough.
As of now, 80% chance of rain as Hurricane Nicole comes into Charlotte with 10-15 mph winds.
If your first thought was to take the under, Vegas has already priced this in the total. The total has now fallen 3.5 points in 48 hours.
Let’s move along.
Mariota UNDER 157.5 Passing Yards
Let’s look at a few things here…
On the year, Mariota has hit the under 5 times out of 9 games… Not ideal.
But, you need to dig further…
Mariota has only played in three outdoor stadiums this year. Playing outdoors, he has only hit the over once.
The Falcons run at the 2nd highest rate in the league and rank 29th in plays per game.
Combining all these factors with a hurricane feels like a very reasonable bet.
Cordarelle Patterson anytime TD scorer
This is at plus odds making this my risky play of the night.
ATL ranks third in run blocking and Patterson is averaging a touchdown in all of his healthy games.
Expect a lot of the plays to stay on the ground tonight.
ATL was letting Patterson work back into his role last week against the Chargers but still gave him the RedZone duties.
Tyler Allgeier OVER 35.5 rushing yards
As I stated, this game should have a heavy ground attack from both sides of the ball.
Tyler has proved his worth in Patterson’s absence and I can’t see them shying away from him now.
Last week, he went for 99 yards on 10 touches…
Allgeier has hit this over 6 games in a row now.
I expect a split backfield between Patterson and Allgeier.
Moving on to the hoops.
Kristaps Porzingis UNDER 20.5 points
On the season, Porzingis is averaging 19 ppg.
In his 11 games this season, he has only hit over 21 points three times or 27% of the time.
Tonight, he is up against a tough matchup versus the Mavs.
The Mavs allow the 2nd least amount of points to centers giving up an average of 15.9 ppg.
Kyle Kuzma UNDER 2.5 Assists
Kuzma came into the night averaging 2.1 assists per game.
Kuzma has only hit this total in three of his eleven-game season.
Mavs allowing the 6th least assists per game to PF.
That’s all I have for today.
I’ll be back tomorrow for more picks for the weekend.
Best of Luck!