Good morning, folks!
Last night was an interesting one.
I went 2/4 on my bets but I was still profitable (My Luka bet was small).
Julius Randle, you are in my dog house. I had his over at 18.5, and Randle scored 10pts in the first quarter. Randle finished the night with 14 points. Sheesh…
Well, today is a new day and a good night for some more gut-feeling bets.
On the week, I am 8/13 so I’m feeling pretty good this week so far.
Today, I have a few NFL props for tonight’s PHI @ HOU game and a couple of NBA props. To conclude today’s post, I also have a system NHL pick for you all.
I couldn’t get myself to bet on the TNF game tonight because it’s too dicey.
At first glance, PHI should cover. PHI has the best o line in football and they’re going against the worst run defense and an atrocious pass rush.
PHI defense has also been elite and they’re going against Davis Mills.
PHI should have no problems whatsoever with HOU but I can’t get myself to take the 14pt spread on an away game.
So I avoided it entirely.
Let’s kick it off, Dameon Pierce Over 18.5 receiving yards
Dameon Pierce OVER 2.5 Receptions (This was not parlayed)
Dameon Pierce, since he was the bell cow of the HOU backfield, has only hit this over 2/5 times. Not great.
Here’s why I took it.
PHI has the 4th best pass rush and HOU will have issues protecting Davis Mills. Davis Mills may not even have time to look down the field.
HOU has a poor o line so the pressure will be there.
Dameon Pierce is the third most targeted player on the Texans, behind Cooks and Collins.
Turns out, Collins will be out for tonight’s game and Cooks hasn’t shown up to practice since Monday (Rumors swirling he is demanding a release). As of noon, Cooks is not expected to play tonight.
Leaving Pierce as Davis Mills most trusted target in this game.
PHI has the 2nd worst tackling grade according to PFF. Very interesting for a phenomenal defense. What makes this more interesting, Dameon Pierce has the third most broken tackles in the NFL as a running back.
I expect Pierce’s game to be similar to Mixon’s game on Monday night. Burrow had no time in the pocket due to Myles Garrett pressures and Mixon was getting every check down.
I expect Brandon Graham to be all over Mills tonight leading to some receiving work for Pierce.
Davis Mills UNDER 218.5 Passing Yards
Yes, the Texans should be playing from behind the whole game.
But, the Eagles pressure at a 24.9% rate.
When Davis Mills goes against a team that pressures to this amount, he has yet to throw over 177 yards in a game. Other games include TEN (152 passing yards) and JAX (140 yards).
His best game came against the LV Raiders. The Raiders have a pressure rate of 16.5%, the bottom five in the NFL.
Davis Mills on the season is averaging 214 passing yards a game.
The Eagles have allowed the fourth least passing yards per game at 183.4 yards.
The books are pricing Davis Mills passing yards tonight to exceed his season average against a stellar Eagles defense.
I will not overthink it, I’m taking the under.
Nikola Jokic OVER 21.5 Rebounds + Assists
Stepping into the basketball world, but this is my favorite bet for NBA tonight.
To be fair, the Julius Randle over was also my favorite yesterday…
Anyways, Jokic has hit this over in 5 of the last 9 times he has played the OKC Thunder.
Versus Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jokic has hit this over 2/3 times.
Here’s what’s different this time:
OKC is giving up an average of 19.5 rebounds a game to centers, 2nd in the league, and the 12th most assists to centers.
I expect Jokic to draw a double team tonight often and for him to find the open man. I don’t like the points for him as much.
Paulo Banchero OVER 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
I’m iffy on this one, mainly because the sample size isn’t there since he’s a rookie.
But, through 8 games, his season average exceeds this total.
Warriors give up the most points in the NBA to power forwards and the 2nd most assists to power forwards.
As I said, the sample size is minimal so I went small and bet 0.5 units.
Lastly, the system pick.
Dallas Stars (ML) @ Arizona Coyotes
Yes, hockey is in full swing, and our system has been great this season so far.
With a record of 13-9 (59% win rate) and up nearly 1.4 units, we are excited for our hockey system this season.
That’s a wrap for today’s gut-feeling picks, folks.
Enjoy your day and best of luck!
(Still not an analyst)