Before I go further, I have to brag about my Monday night picks.
I went 4/5 on Monday night bets.
Of course, two of those bets were system picks (2/2 on system picks on Monday night) but the system was quite contrarian. Bears +8 wasn’t crazy, but the over seemed out there. But, following a system paid Monday night. That’s another win for the system.
Anyways, I’m hoping to continue this win streak going into this Thursday’s game with the Ravens at the Buccaneers.
We have had some boring TNF games as of late and this was supposed to be a fun game going into the season.
Unfortunately, Tom Brady has struggled all season behind his underperforming offensive line and struggling defense.
C’mon… They just lost to P.J. Walker and the rebuilding Carolina Panthers.
The Buccaneers needed a get-right game and they dropped the ball again.
What if… Buccaneers are, dare I say it, bad.
Of course, it’s hard to count out a Tom Brady team, but sheesh… this team is underperforming in every aspect of the game.
Anyways, football is kicking off in a little over 24 hours and I couldn’t be more excited.
Let’s get into the gut-feeling bets and I’ll throw in a free system pick as usual.
Rachaad White OVER 12.5 receiving yards
I suspect the Ravens will pressure since Tom Brady’s passer rating this season is 50 when throwing under pressure.
I’m banking on Tom Brady to throw a couple of check-downs to White’s way once the pressure approaches.
We’re also seeing Rachaad White’s roll increasing week after week. White has had 7 touches in consecutive weeks and his snaps are also going up.
White saw 43% of the snaps last week (season-high) while Fournette tied a season-low at 60%.
Mike Evans UNDER 68.5 Receiving Yards
Odds are, Evans will be lining up against Marlon Humphrey. He is ranked as a top-20 corner in coverage. With Godwin increasing his role, Brady may want to focus on Godwin since Evans dropped a bomb last week on the Bucc’s first drive of the game.
And when I say dropped a bomb, the ball bounced off his hands with no defenders in sight. Should have been a walk-in touchdown.
Also, I don’t have faith in huge performances on TNF due to the short week.
Mark Andrews Anytime TD Scorer
I can’t believe this is plus odds at +110.
Andrews had a very quiet week last week but he still has 5 touchdowns on the season.
Mark Andrews has 12 total targets in the red zone this season ranking him fourth in the NFL in most targets.
What you need to monitor is Andrews did not practice yesterday and the injury report for today’s practice should be coming out soon.
Before I go into the system pick, what’s interesting about this game is both teams are 0-6 ATS and 6-0 on the under in the last three games.
The system pick for tomorrow’s game is Baltimore -1.5.
Don’t forget to claim your free system picks!
Good luck and I’ll be back Friday for some more gut-feeling bets for the weekend.
(Not an analyst)